Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 356 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 356 PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 435 PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:08 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 356 United Flight history →	PHX 06:50	ORD 12:28	11%	4%	0.9%	88%
AA 3062 American Flight history →	PHX 05:08	ORD 10:49	12%	5%	1.6%	92%
UA 2823 United	PHX 00:05	ORD 05:26	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2765 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	ORD 12:51	17%	5%	1.3%	91%
AA 1148 American Flight history →	PHX 00:50	ORD 06:25	18%	5%	1.1%	79%
AA 2059 American	PHX 23:42	ORD 05:06	27%	9%	1.4%	no record
UA 1124 United Flight history →	PHX 09:11	ORD 14:40	30%	15%	0.9%	61%
AA 2474 American	PHX 08:32	ORD 14:13	32%	12%	2.7%	no record
AA 2201 American Flight history →	PHX 18:53	ORD 00:31	32%	13%	1.5%	90%worse than usual
UA 1748 United Flight history →	PHX 11:10	ORD 16:52	36%	19%	1.0%	78%worse than usual
UA 2652 United	PHX 11:25	ORD 16:57	39%	20%	1.0%	no record
AA 332 American Flight history →	PHX 10:16	ORD 16:06	39%	17%	2.1%	74%worse than usual
AA 2569 American	PHX 17:58	ORD 23:37	39%	17%	1.1%	no record
UA 1402 United	PHX 16:40	ORD 22:15	44%	22%	0.8%	no record
AA 338 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	ORD 18:08	47%	21%	1.4%	70%worse than usual
UA 1842 United Flight history →	PHX 13:12	ORD 18:41	50%	22%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
AA 435 American Flight history →	PHX 15:28	ORD 21:08	51%	23%	1.4%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON