Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1690 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 1690 PHX 07:50 → PDX 10:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 561 PHX 20:25 → PDX 23:08 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1690 Southwest	PHX 07:50	PDX 10:41	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 564 Alaska	PHX 07:02	PDX 09:56	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 511 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 10:57	PDX 13:50	15%	3%	0.7%	89%
AS 742 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:04	PDX 16:46	20%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 2684 American	PHX 10:53	PDX 13:54	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 662 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 17:48	PDX 20:30	27%	6%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
WN 4871 Southwest	PHX 13:15	PDX 16:05	29%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 512 Alaska	PHX 20:54	PDX 23:44	31%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1625 American Flight history →	PHX 14:11	PDX 17:04	31%	7%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
WN 3256 Southwest	PHX 19:35	PDX 22:24	40%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1471 Southwest	PHX 22:46	PDX 01:37	42%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 561 American Flight history →	PHX 20:25	PDX 23:08	42%	10%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON