Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3047 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3047 PHX 06:25 → PHL 14:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2721 PHX 13:13 → PHL 20:58 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3047 American	PHX 06:25	PHL 14:10	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2301 American Flight history →	PHX 23:26	PHL 07:16	17%	6%	1.4%	93%
AA 2300 American Flight history →	PHX 08:54	PHL 16:42	25%	7%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
AA 388 American	PHX 22:12	PHL 05:53	28%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 454 American	PHX 14:25	PHL 22:17	30%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 357 American	PHX 15:51	PHL 23:46	34%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 2721 American Flight history →	PHX 13:13	PHL 20:58	35%	10%	0.8%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009	53m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 50m	83%	62%
American Details →	PHX 05:08 → ORD 10:49AA 3062	51m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	6h 46m	82%	58%
United Details →	PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709	1h 10m Denver	DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510	6h 56m	84%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON