tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 32–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2871 American Flight history → PHX 15:46 PIT 22:51 32% 10% 0.6% 78%worse than usual
WN 4674 Southwest PHX 16:52 PIT 23:49 37% 11% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 3h 17m Chicago ORD 09:42 → PIT 12:22AA 4467 · flown by Republic 8h 32m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 7h 05m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:27 → EWR 14:04UA 1222 1h 56m Newark EWR 16:00 → PIT 17:37UA 3591 · flown by Republic 8h 10m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 6h 16m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 8h 35m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546 1h 11m New York JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15DL 5685 · flown by Republic 8h 15m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:02 → JFK 17:45AA 2339 2h 45m New York JFK 20:30 → PIT 22:27AA 4611 · flown by Republic 9h 25m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 09:03 → SEA 11:57AS 603 55m Seattle SEA 12:52 → PIT 20:17AS 412 8h 14m 72% 56%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:54 → PHL 16:42AA 2300 58m Philadelphia PHL 17:40 → PIT 19:12AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 7h 18m 73% 45%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 47m Chicago ORD 18:55 → PIT 21:31AA 1051 6h 16m 33% 14%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON