Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1884 at 10:38 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1884 PHX 10:38 → PSP 11:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2562 PHX 17:15 → PSP 18:32 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1884 American Flight history →	PHX 10:38	PSP 11:55	26%	8%	0.9%	78%
OO 6406 SkyWest	PHX 15:30	PSP 16:48	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 4922 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:23	PSP 21:32	37%	12%	1.5%	72%
AA 2562 American Flight history →	PHX 17:15	PSP 18:32	43%	13%	1.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON