tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3832 at 08:25, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3832 Envoy PHX 08:25 RAP 11:54 17% 3% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:11 → RAP 16:39AA 3532 · flown by Envoy 8h 09m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 16m Denver DEN 11:08 → RAP 12:26UA 1585 5h 26m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → RAP 15:29DL 3851 · flown by SkyWest 7h 44m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest 7h 35m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → RAP 14:46UA 5556 · flown by SkyWest 4h 38m 93% 73%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624 1h 55m Denver DEN 21:16 → RAP 22:52UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest 5h 27m 83% 60%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 1h 11m Denver DEN 17:55 → RAP 19:24UA 5225 · flown by SkyWest 4h 50m 84% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON