Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:50	RDM 13:25	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 3597 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 20:26	RDM 22:59	17%	4%	0.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → RDM 11:35DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738	3h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest	7h 03m	96%	79%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 23m Denver	DEN 11:15 → RDM 12:53UA 2082	6h 53m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662	1h 25m Portland	PDX 21:55 → RDM 22:45AS 2057 · flown by Horizon	4h 57m	86%	77%
Alaska Details →	PHX 14:04 → PDX 16:46AS 742	1h 34m Portland	PDX 18:20 → RDM 19:09AS 2172 · flown by Horizon	5h 05m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43DL 4141 · flown by SkyWest	6h 28m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 11:22 → RDM 12:45DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	5h 46m	86%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 17:40 → SEA 20:46DL 2442	49m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	60%	49%
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645	58m Seattle	SEA 11:27 → RDM 12:34AS 275	5h 14m	71%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON