tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 34–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2332 American Flight history → PHX 15:41 RDU 22:58 34% 10% 0.9% 74%
WN 547 Southwest PHX 15:07 RDU 22:09 38% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 1h 53m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 7h 48m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 00:02 → EWR 07:57UA 2078 3h 15m Newark EWR 11:12 → RDU 12:57UA 1410 9h 55m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 35m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 57m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 6h 16m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 3h 14m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 8h 47m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 8h 06m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 2h 39m Dulles IAD 18:56 → RDU 20:15UA 1322 8h 25m 98% 77%
JetBlueDetails → PHX 00:00 → BOS 07:58B6 1302 3h 21m Boston BOS 11:19 → RDU 13:20B6 2283 10h 20m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 1h 01m Denver DEN 17:45 → RDU 23:16UA 2671 6h 42m 69% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON