Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1907 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 1907 PHX 07:50 → RNO 09:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1765 PHX 20:38 → RNO 22:25 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1907 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:50	RNO 09:49	7%	1%	1.0%	80%
MQ 3338 Envoy	PHX 07:13	RNO 09:11	12%	3%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3353 Envoy	PHX 15:17	RNO 17:16	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	PHX 10:22	RNO 12:22	21%	6%	0.7%	85%
WN 3456 Southwest	PHX 16:15	RNO 18:13	30%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 527 Southwest	PHX 22:56	RNO 00:53	31%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 2869 American	PHX 17:04	RNO 19:07	35%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 1765 American Flight history →	PHX 20:38	RNO 22:25	42%	10%	0.9%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON