Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4661 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–49%.

Safest bet that day WN 4661 PHX 06:28 → SAN 07:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3326 PHX 22:10 → SAN 23:33 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4661 Southwest	PHX 06:28	SAN 07:51	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 1442 Southwest	PHX 07:50	SAN 09:13	16%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 1793 American	PHX 07:40	SAN 09:05	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 1571 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:11	SAN 09:42	29%	13%	0.8%	78%
AA 2122 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	SAN 12:06	29%	10%	0.8%	81%
WN 539 Southwest	PHX 09:40	SAN 11:04	31%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 3144 SkyWest	PHX 10:14	SAN 11:41	32%	10%	1.8%	no record
WN 3478 Southwest	PHX 10:30	SAN 11:53	33%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 3310 SkyWest	PHX 16:16	SAN 17:48	34%	12%	2.7%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	PHX 14:07	SAN 15:33	38%	11%	0.8%	68%
WN 4324 Southwest	PHX 11:55	SAN 13:19	38%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 480 American Flight history →	PHX 17:01	SAN 18:27	40%	11%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
WN 2327 Southwest	PHX 14:20	SAN 15:44	40%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 153 Southwest	PHX 17:05	SAN 18:29	43%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 3462 Southwest	PHX 15:55	SAN 17:18	43%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 3784 Southwest	PHX 19:10	SAN 20:34	48%	15%	1.0%	no record
AA 559 American Flight history →	PHX 20:20	SAN 21:34	48%	14%	1.0%	62%worse than usual
WN 3326 Southwest	PHX 22:10	SAN 23:33	49%	18%	1.2%	no record
AS 2045 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 07:11	SAN 08:36	19%	5%	15.7%	81%
AS 2028 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 15:13	SAN 16:35	50%	15%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON