Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1771 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1771 PHX 08:20 → SAT 12:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 121 PHX 20:45 → SAT 01:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1771 Southwest	PHX 08:20	SAT 12:38	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1391 American	PHX 08:42	SAT 13:06	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 210 Southwest	PHX 12:45	SAT 17:04	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 570 American Flight history →	PHX 12:31	SAT 16:57	24%	9%	0.6%	75%
WN 4461 Southwest	PHX 16:16	SAT 20:31	29%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 450 American Flight history →	PHX 19:01	SAT 23:26	32%	11%	1.0%	78%worse than usual
WN 121 Southwest	PHX 20:45	SAT 01:05	33%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON