Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3984 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 3984 PHX 07:30 → SBA 09:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1855 PHX 20:47 → SBA 22:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3984 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:30	SBA 09:16	13%	3%	1.1%	96%
MQ 3931 Envoy	PHX 17:07	SBA 18:53	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2928 American Flight history →	PHX 10:04	SBA 11:52	20%	6%	0.9%	88%
AA 1855 American	PHX 20:47	SBA 22:35	37%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON