tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1759 at 13:25, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1759 Southwest PHX 13:25 SDF 19:56 35% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 57m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 02m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 17m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 58m Denver DEN 09:50 → SDF 14:34UA 8179 5h 34m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 59m Minneapolis MSP 12:49 → SDF 15:47DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:55 → SDF 18:03AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 7h 33m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191 3h 46m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 10h 10m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 8h 11m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:54 → PHL 16:42AA 2300 2h 48m Philadelphia PHL 19:30 → SDF 21:45AA 4335 · flown by Republic 9h 51m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:31 → DEN 16:27UA 1615 1h 21m Denver DEN 17:48 → SDF 22:30UA 514 5h 59m 75% 41%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 1h 21m Chicago ORD 19:29 → SDF 22:04AA 4603 · flown by Republic 6h 49m 71% 39%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:10 → ORD 16:52UA 1748 58m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic 6h 13m 61% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON