Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 605 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–48%.

Safest bet that day AS 605 PHX 06:08 → SEA 09:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 2444 PHX 17:35 → SEA 20:31 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 605 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 06:08	SEA 09:07	13%	3%	1.0%	93%
DL 1570 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:59	SEA 10:05	14%	4%	1.0%	95%
DL 2374 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:19	SEA 12:30	14%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	PHX 12:15	SEA 15:25	19%	4%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
AA 4081 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:39	SEA 10:51	20%	4%	0.8%	97%worse than usual
AA 2208 American	PHX 10:30	SEA 13:41	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 603 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 09:03	SEA 11:57	22%	4%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:54	SEA 19:02	24%	6%	1.0%	83%
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 14:32	SEA 17:46	25%	6%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:40	SEA 20:46	25%	6%	0.8%	82%
AS 645 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 07:20	SEA 10:29	26%	5%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 17:55	SEA 21:05	27%	6%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
WN 2044 Southwest	PHX 07:50	SEA 10:48	27%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 637 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 11:32	SEA 14:26	30%	5%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
AS 609 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 12:46	SEA 15:46	32%	5%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
AS 611 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:38	SEA 17:38	36%	8%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
AS 1422 Alaska	PHX 16:16	SEA 19:16	39%	9%	0.9%	no record
AS 477 Alaska	PHX 19:03	SEA 22:02	39%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 2444 Southwest	PHX 17:35	SEA 20:31	48%	14%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON