Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2449 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 2449 PHX 06:57 → SFO 09:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time Riskiest AA 686 PHX 20:23 → SFO 22:23 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2449 United Flight history →	PHX 06:57	SFO 09:11	23%	7%	0.8%	25%
UA 2100 United	PHX 08:49	SFO 11:10	27%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 2619 United Flight history →	PHX 10:43	SFO 12:51	29%	11%	0.6%	66%
WN 1528 Southwest	PHX 08:00	SFO 10:13	31%	11%	0.7%	no record
OO 5985 SkyWest	PHX 15:35	SFO 18:08	33%	13%	0.5%	no record
AA 6430 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 07:34	SFO 09:46	34%	10%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
AA 3199 American Flight history →	PHX 11:45	SFO 13:50	35%	11%	0.7%	31%
F9 1191 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 14:02	SFO 16:11	37%	18%	1.0%	64%
AA 2421 American Flight history →	PHX 16:58	SFO 19:08	39%	14%	0.6%	69%
UA 693 United	PHX 20:57	SFO 23:09	41%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 4841 Southwest	PHX 15:57	SFO 18:05	42%	15%	0.6%	no record
AA 2860 American Flight history →	PHX 14:05	SFO 16:05	43%	13%	0.7%	48%
WN 2240 Southwest	PHX 22:20	SFO 00:30	43%	17%	0.8%	no record
AA 686 American Flight history →	PHX 20:23	SFO 22:23	50%	17%	0.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON