Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1654 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1654 PHX 08:01 → SJC 10:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4658 PHX 17:20 → SJC 19:22 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1654 Southwest	PHX 08:01	SJC 10:04	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4286 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:11	SJC 11:14	10%	3%	0.6%	97%
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:18	SJC 12:24	13%	4%	0.8%	95%
WN 983 Southwest	PHX 12:08	SJC 14:14	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2678 Southwest	PHX 15:25	SJC 17:27	32%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2094 American Flight history →	PHX 16:27	SJC 18:31	32%	9%	0.7%	67%
WN 2468 Southwest	PHX 21:05	SJC 23:07	35%	13%	0.6%	no record
AA 1537 American Flight history →	PHX 20:43	SJC 22:52	35%	11%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
WN 3477 Southwest	PHX 19:55	SJC 21:58	36%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 4658 Southwest	PHX 17:20	SJC 19:22	36%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON