Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1535 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 1535 PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3313 PHX 22:52 → SLC 01:35 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1535 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SLC 08:37	5%	3%	0.9%	97%
F9 1440 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 05:49	SLC 08:35	6%	4%	1.3%	93%
WN 3479 Southwest	PHX 07:55	SLC 10:40	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	SLC 11:37	12%	5%	0.6%	91%
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:45	SLC 12:21	12%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 397 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:37	SLC 13:21	16%	3%	0.6%	65%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:21	SLC 13:02	17%	6%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:20	SLC 15:58	20%	5%	0.8%	89%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:05	SLC 19:43	22%	6%	1.6%	88%
DL 1451 Delta Flight history →	PHX 19:20	SLC 21:59	22%	8%	1.4%	87%
AA 4968 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:21	SLC 23:06	27%	11%	1.1%	86%worse than usual
WN 3135 Southwest	PHX 14:55	SLC 17:39	28%	7%	1.5%	no record
F9 2526 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 15:29	SLC 18:17	31%	10%	1.9%	85%worse than usual
WN 3720 Southwest	PHX 21:42	SLC 00:25	33%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 343 Southwest	PHX 16:25	SLC 19:09	34%	9%	2.5%	no record
AA 2907 American	PHX 15:57	SLC 18:42	35%	9%	1.6%	no record
WN 3313 Southwest	PHX 22:52	SLC 01:35	38%	13%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON