Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3481 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 3481 PHX 05:20 → SMF 07:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 464 PHX 18:15 → SMF 20:33 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3481 Southwest	PHX 05:20	SMF 07:27	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 139 Southwest	PHX 07:45	SMF 09:53	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	PHX 07:17	SMF 09:31	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4070 Envoy	PHX 14:03	SMF 16:12	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 249 Southwest	PHX 11:35	SMF 13:42	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	PHX 10:02	SMF 12:16	22%	7%	0.6%	88%
WN 4763 Southwest	PHX 15:05	SMF 17:13	32%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3499 Southwest	PHX 21:51	SMF 23:58	40%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 1557 Southwest	PHX 22:51	SMF 00:58	41%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 2146 American Flight history →	PHX 21:28	SMF 23:46	42%	11%	0.7%	70%worse than usual
WN 3484 Southwest	PHX 17:39	SMF 19:38	43%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 464 American	PHX 18:15	SMF 20:33	44%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON