Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 762 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 762 PHX 07:50 → SNA 09:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2957 PHX 19:00 → SNA 20:26 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 762 Southwest	PHX 07:50	SNA 09:15	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
F9 4957 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:10	SNA 08:43	17%	6%	1.2%	83%
WN 496 Southwest	PHX 08:54	SNA 10:20	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1481 Southwest	PHX 09:49	SNA 11:15	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2466 American Flight history →	PHX 07:47	SNA 09:13	21%	5%	0.9%	88%
WN 3414 Southwest	PHX 12:14	SNA 13:40	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2454 American Flight history →	PHX 10:20	SNA 11:46	26%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 1656 American	PHX 11:04	SNA 12:31	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2369 Southwest	PHX 14:56	SNA 16:25	29%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2637 American Flight history →	PHX 21:07	SNA 22:26	31%	6%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
WN 588 Southwest	PHX 20:45	SNA 22:11	31%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	PHX 14:07	SNA 15:34	31%	7%	0.7%	78%
AA 2471 American Flight history →	PHX 17:05	SNA 18:39	35%	7%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
WN 3831 Southwest	PHX 18:00	SNA 19:26	36%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2957 Southwest	PHX 19:00	SNA 20:26	36%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON