Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4084 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4084 PHX 05:00 → STL 10:06 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 890 PHX 18:52 → STL 23:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4084 Southwest	PHX 05:00	STL 10:06	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3254 Southwest	PHX 07:00	STL 12:06	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2660 American	PHX 08:24	STL 13:40	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2229 Southwest	PHX 11:40	STL 16:47	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 133 Southwest	PHX 14:23	STL 19:30	30%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 3346 Southwest	PHX 19:50	STL 00:53	35%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 890 American Flight history →	PHX 18:52	STL 23:58	39%	11%	0.8%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON