Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:23	STS 12:50	19%	4%	1.2%	96%worse than usual
OO 4989 SkyWest	PHX 13:54	STS 16:15	29%	10%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PHX 06:08 → SEA 09:07AS 605	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 10:58 → STS 12:58AS 1347	6h 50m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	PHX 14:38 → SEA 17:38AS 611	2h 20m Seattle	SEA 19:58 → STS 21:59AS 504	7h 21m	95%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON