Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 590 at 11:29 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 590 PHX 11:29 → TUL 15:58 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 581 PHX 18:40 → TUL 23:09 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 590 Southwest	PHX 11:29	TUL 15:58	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3645 Envoy	PHX 13:43	TUL 18:20	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3585 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 19:30	TUL 00:09	27%	7%	0.9%	64%
WN 581 Southwest	PHX 18:40	TUL 23:09	40%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON