Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 757 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 757 PHX 07:25 → TUS 08:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 901 PHX 22:43 → TUS 23:41 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 757 Southwest	PHX 07:25	TUS 08:23	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:13	TUS 08:11	13%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:42	TUS 09:40	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
OO 6366 SkyWest	PHX 10:19	TUS 11:17	17%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 6332 SkyWest	PHX 12:12	TUS 13:11	23%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 6518 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 17:17	TUS 18:22	25%	11%	0.8%	74%
OO 6294 SkyWest	PHX 13:54	TUS 14:51	25%	10%	0.8%	no record
OO 6205 SkyWest	PHX 15:26	TUS 16:25	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 6457 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:42	TUS 19:40	28%	11%	0.9%	81%
AA 6309 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:49	TUS 21:48	30%	10%	0.8%	68%
WN 901 Southwest	PHX 22:43	TUS 23:41	41%	17%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON