Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2800 American	PHX 09:09	XNA 13:51	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 4086 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:49	XNA 20:30	22%	6%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 40m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 05m	100%	85%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → XNA 13:57AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	98%	81%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	58m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	8h 49m	96%	77%
United Details →	PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373	3h 09m Houston	IAH 20:12 → XNA 21:55UA 6308 · flown by Mesa	7h 35m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → XNA 17:14DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → XNA 16:41DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	8h 56m	98%	74%
American Details →	PHX 08:30 → CLT 15:48AA 1688	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 18:05 → XNA 19:36AA 4087 · flown by Envoy	9h 06m	97%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:08AA 435	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → XNA 00:26 +1AA 3941 · flown by Envoy	6h 58m	66%	43%
American Details →	PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338	52m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → XNA 20:53AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	6h 38m	42%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON