tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3650 Southwest PIT 15:00 AUS 17:31 18% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:30 → AUS 10:56UA 637 5h 50m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 6h 18m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 20m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:55 → ORD 07:34UA 1803 1h 27m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 04m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 7h 57m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376 3h 21m Charlotte CLT 09:50 → AUS 11:46AA 818 7h 51m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 15:10 → AUS 18:04DL 2687 7h 41m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 1h 20m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 29m 90% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor 2h 01m New York JFK 20:57 → AUS 23:49DL 1233 7h 45m 75% 46%
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:41 → DFW 21:49AA 1868 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588 5h 10m 74% 37%
UnitedDetails → PIT 18:02 → ORD 18:46UA 602 1h 12m Chicago ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312 5h 52m 59% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON