Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 376 at 04:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 376 PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1715 PIT 17:31 → CLT 19:04 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 376 American Flight history →	PIT 04:55	CLT 06:29	6%	3%	0.8%	97%
AA 2310 American Flight history →	PIT 10:20	CLT 11:55	9%	5%	1.0%	92%
AA 384 American Flight history →	PIT 06:38	CLT 08:10	11%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 2888 American	PIT 12:25	CLT 14:00	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1736 American	PIT 13:20	CLT 14:54	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2930 American Flight history →	PIT 20:17	CLT 21:57	28%	7%	0.8%	59%
AA 1715 American	PIT 17:31	CLT 19:04	30%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON