Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 762 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 762 PIT 07:01 → DFW 09:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1868 PIT 19:41 → DFW 21:49 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 762 American Flight history →	PIT 07:01	DFW 09:09	10%	5%	0.9%	88%
AA 1583 American Flight history →	PIT 11:38	DFW 13:45	14%	6%	0.7%	87%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	PIT 15:17	DFW 17:23	22%	8%	0.8%	73%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	PIT 19:41	DFW 21:49	26%	9%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON