Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5842 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day YX 5842 PIT 10:25 → DTW 11:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3875 PIT 21:25 → DTW 22:36 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5842 Republic	PIT 10:25	DTW 11:42	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 5841 Republic	PIT 17:20	DTW 18:38	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3875 SkyWest	PIT 21:25	DTW 22:36	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 5319 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 06:30	DTW 07:44	14%	7%	5.8%	86%
DL 5303 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 12:25	DTW 13:34	14%	7%	2.3%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON