tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3511 Southwest PIT 05:00 LAS 06:35 4% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2927 Southwest PIT 19:40 LAS 21:28 27% 8% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 50m Dulles IAD 09:08 → LAS 11:20UA 1323 8h 14m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 15m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 37m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 58m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 57m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 1h 18m Dulles IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156 7h 39m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → PIT 07:24 → EWR 08:54UA 3513 · flown by Republic 2h 00m Newark EWR 10:54 → LAS 13:21UA 446 8h 57m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:30 → DEN 10:01UA 1765 1h 21m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 54m 97% 77%
JetBlueDetails → PIT 06:25 → JFK 07:57B6 1198 3h 03m New York JFK 11:00 → LAS 13:43B6 511 10h 18m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 15:17 → DFW 17:23AA 2664 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:10 → LAS 19:02AA 265 6h 45m 71% 32%
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 59m Chicago ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875 6h 47m 68% 31%
UnitedDetails → PIT 18:02 → ORD 18:46UA 602 1h 20m Chicago ORD 20:06 → LAS 21:56UA 777 6h 54m 65% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON