Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 06:06, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2055 United	PIT 15:51	LAX 18:16	15%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic	2h 55m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	11h 03m	100%	86%
United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	2h 07m Dulles	IAD 09:25 → LAX 11:38UA 657	8h 32m	100%	85%
American Details →	PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376	2h 28m Charlotte	CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995	9h 01m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 07m	99%	83%
American Details →	PIT 06:07 → JFK 07:43AA 4587 · flown by Republic	3h 17m New York	JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3	10h 51m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	8h 00m	99%	81%
American Details →	PIT 08:35 → PHL 10:05AA 3248	3h 17m Philadelphia	PHL 13:22 → LAX 16:07AA 2944	10h 32m	99%	80%
United Details →	PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa	3h 33m Dulles	IAD 15:15 → LAX 17:47UA 684	10h 17m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m New York	JFK 20:20 → LAX 23:38DL 752	9h 34m	61%	35%
United Details →	PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180	52m Chicago	ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576	7h 10m	59%	33%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:40 → SLC 19:49DL 1188	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:35 → LAX 21:29DL 1142	6h 49m	56%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON