Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5753 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 5753 PIT 06:05 → LGA 07:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 4396 PIT 18:57 → LGA 20:34 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5753 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:05	LGA 07:33	4%	2%	1.0%	96%
AA 4610 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:19	LGA 07:49	4%	2%	1.0%	93%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:59	LGA 12:36	8%	4%	1.5%	80%
YX 5815 Republic	PIT 08:55	LGA 10:32	8%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:00	LGA 14:36	14%	7%	1.6%	84%
YX 4433 Republic	PIT 15:40	LGA 17:17	17%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 4396 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:57	LGA 20:34	17%	6%	1.4%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON