tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2313 at 06:15, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2313 American Flight history → PIT 06:15 MIA 09:08 10% 4% 1.0% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 12m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 27m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 29m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 1h 38m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 5h 58m 93% 73%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:19 → LGA 07:49AA 4610 · flown by Republic 1h 39m New York LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211 6h 26m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 6h 02m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 09:01 → MIA 11:02AA 3184 6h 07m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → PIT 18:13 → ATL 20:05DL 1568 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 42m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → PIT 08:00 → RDU 09:26AA 4531 · flown by Republic 1h 55m Raleigh/Durham RDU 11:21 → MIA 13:33AA 2321 5h 33m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 18:40 → DCA 20:15AA 5094 · flown by PSA 57m Washington DCA 21:12 → MIA 23:58AA 2214 5h 18m 60% 37%
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 46m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936 5h 07m 62% 31%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor 59m New York JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428 6h 33m 51% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON