Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1055 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1055 PIT 06:37 → MSP 07:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3970 PIT 19:43 → MSP 21:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1055 Delta	PIT 06:37	MSP 07:55	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 845 Delta Flight history →	PIT 11:23	MSP 12:35	12%	4%	0.6%	80%
OO 3970 SkyWest	PIT 19:43	MSP 21:03	18%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 5249 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 16:20	MSP 17:40	35%	19%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON