Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3678 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–52%.

Safest bet that day YX 3678 PIT 05:10 → ORD 05:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 602 PIT 18:02 → ORD 18:46 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3678 Republic	PIT 05:10	ORD 05:57	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 3461 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:36	ORD 09:30	9%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 4539 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:53	ORD 08:40	10%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 4525 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:13	ORD 11:00	10%	4%	0.7%	79%
UA 1803 United Flight history →	PIT 06:55	ORD 07:34	11%	5%	0.8%	89%
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 11:39	ORD 12:26	12%	5%	0.8%	89%
UA 455 United Flight history →	PIT 10:54	ORD 11:42	12%	6%	1.0%	90%
AA 640 American	PIT 06:32	ORD 07:14	13%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 2180 United Flight history →	PIT 14:10	ORD 14:55	31%	16%	1.7%	75%
UA 3577 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 16:10	ORD 16:57	34%	14%	3.6%	88%worse than usual
AA 2671 American	PIT 20:53	ORD 21:48	39%	21%	2.0%	no record
UA 6023 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 19:49	ORD 20:28	42%	24%	5.7%	75%worse than usual
AA 2675 American	PIT 16:06	ORD 16:48	45%	19%	4.1%	no record
UA 602 United Flight history →	PIT 18:02	ORD 18:46	52%	24%	1.4%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON