Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 553 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 553 PIT 05:56 → PHL 07:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2731 PIT 17:22 → PHL 18:53 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 553 American	PIT 05:56	PHL 07:24	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3248 American Flight history →	PIT 08:35	PHL 10:05	11%	4%	0.7%	40%
YX 4796 Republic	PIT 19:50	PHL 21:25	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5132 PSA	PIT 14:54	PHL 16:26	20%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 2731 American	PIT 17:22	PHL 18:53	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 19:45	PHL 21:09	25%	7%	14.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON