tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3071 Southwest PIT 09:50 PHX 11:16 9% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 1885 American Flight history → PIT 07:37 PHX 09:03 13% 5% 0.7% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 38m Dulles IAD 08:56 → PHX 10:47UA 709 7h 41m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376 1h 12m Charlotte CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 7h 10m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 18m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:07 → JFK 07:43AA 4587 · flown by Republic 1h 17m New York JFK 09:00 → PHX 11:02AA 1186 7h 55m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 7h 46m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:38 → CLT 08:10AA 384 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 9h 18m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → PIT 07:24 → EWR 08:54UA 3513 · flown by Republic 1h 06m Newark EWR 10:00 → PHX 12:12UA 1289 7h 48m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → PIT 09:12 → EWR 10:43UA 3560 · flown by Republic 2h 19m Newark EWR 13:02 → PHX 15:15UA 370 9h 03m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 6h 46m 71% 51%
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 1h 08m Chicago ORD 16:03 → PHX 17:51UA 2015 6h 41m 72% 35%
UnitedDetails → PIT 18:02 → ORD 18:46UA 602 1h 44m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 7h 25m 73% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON