tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4531 American flown by Republic Flight history → PIT 08:00 RDU 09:26 4% 2% 0.7% 93%
YX 4742 Republic PIT 16:40 RDU 18:17 10% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 5h 53m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 59m Dulles IAD 08:17 → RDU 09:32UA 203 3h 26m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 37m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PIT 07:24 → EWR 08:54UA 3513 · flown by Republic 2h 18m Newark EWR 11:12 → RDU 12:57UA 1410 5h 33m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → RDU 10:38AA 1768 5h 43m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:38 → CLT 08:10AA 384 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 10:52 → RDU 11:55AA 2688 5h 17m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 2h 31m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 5h 27m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:55 → ORD 07:34UA 1803 3h 14m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 7h 06m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 20:17 → CLT 21:57AA 2930 1h 00m Charlotte CLT 22:57 → RDU 23:58AA 494 3h 41m 72% 46%
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 1h 03m Chicago ORD 15:58 → RDU 19:05UA 2091 4h 55m 70% 38%
UnitedDetails → PIT 19:49 → ORD 20:28UA 6023 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Chicago ORD 23:00 → RDU 01:55 +1UA 1989 6h 06m 68% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON