tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1281 at 06:10, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1281 Southwest PIT 06:10 RSW 08:54 3% 1% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 57m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 4h 47m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 26m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PIT 07:24 → EWR 08:55UA 3513 · flown by Republic 3h 01m Newark EWR 11:56 → RSW 15:06UA 1810 7h 42m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:05 → LGA 07:33DL 5753 · flown by Republic 2h 43m New York LGA 10:16 → RSW 13:24DL 379 7h 19m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:18 → DTW 07:30DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 1h 05m Detroit DTW 08:35 → RSW 11:35DL 2001 5h 17m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:55 → ORD 07:35UA 1803 1h 22m Chicago ORD 08:57 → RSW 12:57UA 1036 6h 02m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:54 → ATL 09:41DL 1383 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 41m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:13 → ATL 13:00DL 1363 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 5h 31m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON