tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 414 Alaska PIT 08:07 SEA 10:31 20% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 9h 28m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic 3h 29m Boston BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332 11h 50m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 45m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 1h 18m Dulles IAD 13:00 → SEA 15:32UA 1824 8h 02m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 8h 37m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 09:16 → SEA 11:54AA 2407 9h 59m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → PIT 14:25 → BOS 16:20DL 5731 · flown by Republic 3h 09m Boston BOS 19:29 → SEA 23:02DL 324 11h 37m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 15m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:40 → SLC 19:49DL 1188 55m Salt Lake City SLC 20:44 → SEA 22:00DL 2016 7h 20m 70% 41%
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:41 → DFW 21:49AA 1868 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 8h 16m 70% 38%
UnitedDetails → PIT 18:02 → ORD 18:46UA 602 1h 21m Chicago ORD 20:07 → SEA 22:28UA 2211 7h 26m 65% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON