tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2820 United Flight history → PIT 06:57 SFO 09:10 17% 5% 0.6% 89%
UA 436 United Flight history → PIT 17:23 SFO 19:51 28% 10% 0.6% 47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 2h 24m Dulles IAD 09:42 → SFO 12:42UA 1773 9h 36m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:07 → JFK 07:43AA 4587 · flown by Republic 2h 46m New York JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149 10h 47m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 08m 100% 80%
JetBlueDetails → PIT 06:25 → JFK 07:57B6 1198 3h 03m New York JFK 11:00 → SFO 14:31B6 215 11h 06m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic 3h 05m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 11h 34m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 35m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 09:33 → SFO 12:08AA 2428 10h 13m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 8h 49m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 16:48 → DEN 18:29UA 1816 56m Denver DEN 19:25 → SFO 21:11UA 1389 7h 23m 68% 34%
UnitedDetails → PIT 19:49 → ORD 20:28UA 6023 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 7h 43m 58% 27%
UnitedDetails → PIT 18:02 → ORD 18:46UA 602 1h 18m Chicago ORD 20:04 → SFO 22:57UA 1495 7h 55m 63% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON