tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:18, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1188 Delta Flight history → PIT 17:40 SLC 19:49 26% 7% 1.3% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 25m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376 3h 03m Charlotte CLT 09:32 → SLC 11:53AA 1895 8h 58m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic 3h 15m Boston BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464 10h 20m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:18 → DTW 07:31DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 54m Detroit DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698 6h 03m 90% 76%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 45m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658 6h 53m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:30 → DEN 10:01UA 1765 1h 39m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 6h 43m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → PIT 07:37 → PHX 09:03AA 1885 1h 18m Phoenix PHX 10:21 → SLC 13:02AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 90% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 17:23 → SFO 19:51UA 436 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest 8h 36m 72% 52%
UnitedDetails → PIT 16:48 → DEN 18:29UA 1816 54m Denver DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769 6h 08m 66% 32%
UnitedDetails → PIT 19:49 → ORD 20:28UA 6023 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Chicago ORD 21:31 → SLC 23:50UA 1710 6h 01m 59% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON