tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 266 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 266 Southwest PIT 06:45 STL 07:38 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2944 Southwest PIT 20:20 STL 21:16 20% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 58m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 12m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 36m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 6h 27m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 42m Dulles IAD 09:00 → STL 10:27UA 4425 · flown by GoJet 5h 21m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → PIT 04:55 → CLT 06:29AA 376 57m Charlotte CLT 07:26 → STL 08:29AA 2497 4h 34m 92% 79%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:38 → CLT 08:10AA 384 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 12:05AA 3096 6h 27m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PIT 12:25 → DTW 13:36DL 5303 · flown by Endeavor 3h 09m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 5h 59m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 01m 88% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 19:49 → ORD 20:28UA 6023 · flown by SkyWest 1h 32m Chicago ORD 22:00 → STL 23:29UA 4576 · flown by GoJet 4h 40m 68% 42%
UnitedDetails → PIT 16:10 → ORD 16:57UA 3577 · flown by Republic 58m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 4h 13m 61% 32%
UnitedDetails → PIT 18:02 → ORD 18:46UA 602 1h 06m Chicago ORD 19:52 → STL 21:11UA 8125 4h 09m 53% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON