Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 342 at 09:55, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 342 Southwest	PNS 09:55	AUS 11:58	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 03m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	5h 25m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	5h 53m	99%	79%
United Details →	PNS 09:00 → IAH 10:46UA 6287 · flown by Mesa	3h 34m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	6h 29m	98%	77%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	3h 23m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	6h 12m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 28m	98%	76%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	1h 32m Charlotte	CLT 09:50 → AUS 11:46AA 818	6h 24m	95%	73%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49AA 3386 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Miami	MIA 09:49 → AUS 11:57AA 812	5h 57m	90%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON