Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5548 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 5548 PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OH 5038 PNS 16:36 → CLT 19:23 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5548 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 05:22	CLT 08:18	7%	6%	2.4%	92%
AA 3215 American	PNS 07:16	CLT 10:00	16%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 2476 American	PNS 10:47	CLT 13:32	17%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 5526 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 13:06	CLT 15:53	21%	7%	1.6%	92%worse than usual
OH 5038 PSA	PNS 16:36	CLT 19:23	23%	8%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON