Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5424 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5424 PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OH 5139 PNS 17:12 → DCA 20:53 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5424 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 06:00	DCA 09:24	10%	5%	1.7%	84%
OH 5449 PSA	PNS 10:35	DCA 14:01	16%	8%	1.9%	no record
OH 5139 PSA	PNS 17:12	DCA 20:53	25%	13%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON