Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5499 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–29%.

Safest bet that day OH 5499 PNS 06:56 → DFW 09:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2328 PNS 15:41 → DFW 17:54 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5499 PSA	PNS 06:56	DFW 09:05	13%	9%	2.5%	no record
AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 11:42	DFW 13:44	13%	4%	0.9%	79%
MQ 4114 Envoy	PNS 18:08	DFW 20:10	22%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 2863 American	PNS 13:42	DFW 15:47	25%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 2328 American Flight history →	PNS 15:41	DFW 17:54	29%	12%	1.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON