Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2532 at 19:25, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2532 Southwest	PNS 19:25	HOU 21:13	17%	7%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 10m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 00m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 33m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON