Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 5156 at 12:26, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PNS 12:26	LGA 16:08	13%	8%	1.9%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 42m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 50m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	6h 49m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 28m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 30m	99%	70%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150	4h 53m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	6h 06m	94%	69%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49AA 3386 · flown by Envoy	1h 07m Miami	MIA 09:56 → LGA 12:57AA 2424	5h 57m	92%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PNS 15:41 → DFW 17:54AA 2328	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → LGA 23:31AA 1375	6h 50m	72%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON