tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PNS 09:00 → IAH 10:46UA 6287 · flown by Mesa 3h 49m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 15m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 11m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 5h 13m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 28m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:28 → MCI 13:00AA 3233 7h 38m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 08m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → PNS 11:42 → DFW 13:44AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:10 → MCI 18:58AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 7h 16m 97% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON