Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: MX 1919 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MX 1919 Breeze	PNS 08:18	MCO 10:57	12%	5%	1.8%	no record
F9 4662 Frontier Flight history →	PNS 14:04	MCO 16:48	23%	16%	1.9%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	3h 57m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 00m	97%	77%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 41m Charlotte	CLT 10:59 → MCO 12:39AA 1576	6h 17m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:58 → MCO 14:28DL 1576	5h 27m	99%	73%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24AA 5424 · flown by PSA	1h 36m Washington	DCA 11:00 → MCO 13:35AA 1153	6h 35m	93%	73%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	6h 51m	99%	66%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372	4h 12m	95%	66%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	6h 40m	98%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON